Market Timing - A non-efficient market theory
The efficient theory of the financial market isn't true for some financial markets. We will give a discussion of
the stock market and the currency market - FX. My theory is based on a future event is predicted by some past and present events. It is a non-efficient market theory.
1- What is A non-efficient market ?
The maket's price chart is a projection of human emotions. It's describled in a 4th-dimension space - (up-emotion, down-emotion, neutral-emotion, time), and
is projected into a 2th-dimension space - (price, time).
The present affects the future
A present news could affect to some charts to create
some new resistances or supports. It could affect a future price if the price hit them.
The Present is affected by the past
Theory could predict for long-term or short-term depend on which time frame you use to analyze.
If I am using 1-year time frame to analyze . Then I think they could happend in this year or next a few of years.
The theory give us points which chart has to go through sooner or later (It looks like price is overprice or Imbalance it have to come back its fair value or balance).
Gap theory and J-chart are its particular cases
- Price hit the past resistance or support could change its path.
- We could predict 3th-EW from 2th-Elliott Wave.
News at the present and in future will drive price going through the points faster or slower.
Policies of a country affects to its economy and the market.
A country issues policies or actions.
It will affect to people and business of that country in the future. Hence, It will affect to prices of securities.
if It is a bad policies or actions . People and business will be collapsed later. Hence, It will affect to prices of securities.
then, The country could issue a modify policies or actions to fix problems in the past. Hence, It will affect to price of securities again.
It looks like you eat bad food. We could throw out later.
What should the government do?
- They don't try to releases a good news too much compare to their current status of economy. Some Investors and traders are buy securities by the good news.
This will make price of a security is overprices.
Hence, the markets couldn't collapse too much right way. They could be decreasing gradually while they have a correction or a down economy.
- They could use results to fix their economy status - a form of intervention - for example, The U.S.'s QE2 plan (from 9/2010-6/2011 -
Buy bond plan kept a low interest rate for loans).
Please, see How has it affected to S&P 500 ?
- If there is good or bad news, its price could be going up or down more. But, It's still overvalue or undervalue.
Once day, Investors and traders will recognize this. Then, They will sell or buy them right way.
This could make price dropping or climbing quickly- a spike.
2- Results of prediction
- Of crashing on May 6, 2010. I have used 1 minute-time frame to analyze. At that time, I though it could happend in a next few of days.
But, It happended after a month !.
- Of crashing on Aug 8, 2011. I predicted the event on 01/10/2011 (8 month before !).
and I had a another analyis in a article (written on 06/14/2011)
"Perspective of the U.S. economy under a S&P 500 technical analysis's Angle"
that I have predicted on the crash on last monday 08/07/11. Thus, I foresaw the crash 8 month ago, and 2 month ago for repeating.
- On message board On 05/09/11, We gave Dhan's pivote points of EUR/USD (I have calculated them)
P1 = 1.38406
P2 = 1.32982
E/U reached to 1.38404 on 07/12/11. Very close to P1! and P2 on 10/03/11
- We gave a future or projected price chart of EUR/USD (
see chart) on 09/28/11.
Please,see the below price chart chart to compare.
I found theory of timing of financial markets on 2/12/2010 while I was watching price's movement of EUR/USD. At that time, I think it only right for currencies.
After that, I though that the stock indexes are commodities, too. Then, I am watching the U.S indexes (here I only give S&P 500 and DJIA.
Actually, I can calculate for any index as Nasdaq, S&P 400, Gold, Oil, Bond..) In general, It's a theory of competition. It also could use to predict of labor market,
temperature, TSUNAMI,... Now, I have a project of Predition of TSUNAMI to help people living nearby a beach. I will collect data of tide to calculate future tide.
I'm calculating time that these events could happend. It may follows Fibonacci, theory Gann, or ...
5- About Publishing information.
We try to explain predictions by the theory in current technical and Fundamental Analysis context before pulishing them on some web sites.
Some predictions without current analysis means we couldn't explain them in current analyzing context.
1. Of Recognizing the Trefoil Knots in a Price Chart of a Security in the Financial Markets
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