Technical Analysis of the major Currencies

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EUR/USD technical analysis at different time frames: daily, 4-hours, and 1-hour.











Ichimoku Analyis and trend Analysis of EUR/USD at daily-chart and monthly-chart. EUR/USD has been reaching to a support. It could make a retracement or return the up trend.


Ichimoku Analyis of EUR/USD at daily-chart. EUR/USD is reaching to a thick resitance. It could make a retracement or return the down trend.

Ichimoku Analyis of EUR/USD at daily-chart.

Ichimoku Analyis of EUR/USD at 4h-chart.

EUR/USD was down over 0.618 Fib, Weekly Pivot at weekly chart.



CHF/JPY could rebound to 0.618 Fib from High-08/10/11 and low-10/06/11.
E/U has broken 200-MVA at 15m-chart. It could have a reserved H&S at 30m-chart. It could have a retracement to 0.618 Fib of hight-11/13/11 and low - 11/16/11. It was breaking a Ichimku cloud at 30m-chart as well.
Tenkan-sen has been crossing kijun-sen above a green cloud at 15m-chart -> give a bullish signal strong of E/U at 15m-Time Frame.
PS: The U.S. stock market is going up in the 4th-quarter.

GBP/CAD has H&S-formation at 5m-chart. GBP/CAD could have a retracement 0.618 Fib. (high-11/03/11 and low - 11/06/11).
GBP/CAD has a negative correlation E/U. This means on the way going up to 0.618 Fib. of G/CAD, G/CAD is bounding back at R/S levels. Here, E/U is going up a little bit. ..Until G/CAD reachs to [0.5 Fib,0.618 Fib]. E/U is going up stronger.
EUR/USD reached Dhan's pivote point P1 on 10/14/11. Then, It have been rebounding (forming 2th-EW at 4h chart) before It's going to Dhan's pivote point P2.
Dhan's pivote points of EUR/USD (I have calculated them) for its up trend
E/G has

The fear of EU crisis have made EUR/USD drop to 1.35. The market volatility give us a buying chance.
On message board On 05/09/11, We gave
Dhan's pivote points of EUR/USD (I have calculated them)
P1 = 1.38406
P2 = 1.32982
E/U reached to 1.38404 on 07/12/11. Very close to P1!
E/U have dropped to 1.35 lately. It could go to P2. But ratio Risk/Reward = 300/1200+ give us a buying chance.
Look at The daily-trend indicator also give us a buying chance as well.
About fundamental, Italy talks with Chinese officials buying its bonds or invest in its companies. EU's plans is clearer than the U.S.'s plans. The China could store more Euro dollars by its the cheap lately.

Update: AUD/USD and NZD/USD
The analyis of AUD/USD and NZD/USD on 08/29/11. They has finished 3th-EW at 30m-chart and by some bad news has driven AUD/USD and NZD/USD down more that they are at 4th-Elliott. Now, They are on the way to complete 5th-Elliott at 30m-chart (Now it is easy to see on 1h-chart)
In addtion to, 5th-Elliott at 30m-chart = C-Elliott at 4h-chart.

If we are looking back on the analysis of E/U on 07/26/11. E/U have been developping 5th-EW at 4h-chart but problems of the U.S debt, then, down grade the U.S debt of S&P 500, Inc., Crisis in Euro made E/U chart has created the 0-Wave.
Now, It is on the way to continue finishing 5th-Elliott Wave. Beware that it could have more 0-waves by news drive emotion of traders or investors. But, Finally, 5th-EW has to be completed at its target in 1.47-1.48.

G/U is developping B-EW at 4h-chart. E/U, E/J, NZD/USD, AUD/USD has finished 3th-EW at 30m-chart. E/G has finished 5th-EW at 1h-chart.

G/U could hit MVA 200 or the low boundary of Bollinger Band at daily-chart before going up.

E/U is forming the reversed H&S at 1h-chart

S&P have dropped to 1,122.70 (see predictions on 01/10/11). It's a wonderful for my theory.
I feel happy about it. I have understood about a up-trend (1-2-3-4-5 EW) before.
I understood more about a down-trend (A-B-C-) recently by observing E/U, G/U, A/U and NZD/U.
QE2 made commodity price increasing. Hence, A/U , NZD/U have tend to finish 5th-EW at daily-chart. Now A/U and NZD/U is finishing A-EW .
A retreatment (B-Wave) will happend later on for NZD/U and A/U. These lead E/U continuing its up-trend to finish 5-EW at 4h-chart.
E/U have dropped today by positive correlation with A/U and NZD/U. Then, S&P 500. Sometime, a positive correlation has a lag property.
for example, E/U dropped from 05/04/11 to 07/12/11. But, S&P 500 continued increasing. Now, S&P 500 have been decreasing to beat a positive correlation with E/U. Thus, A lag property is a good thing to predict a movement of markets.

AUD/USD, NZD/USD has the bearish engulfing candlestick at weekly-chart. NZD/USD has finished 5th-Elliott at daily-chart. AUD/USD haven't finished yet. Its target is at 1.14318

E/U is at daily-chart and 4h-chart. A increament of the U.S. debt limit and the most likely QE3 could make E/U complete 5th-EW at 4h-chart.


E/U is at 4h-chart.

E/U is at 4h-chart.

E/U is develooping 5th-EW at 4h-chart. Its target is in range 1.47-1.48. A general view of EUR/USD on daily-chart

E/U at 4h-chart.

E/U have been bounding back because it hit 200-MVA at 1h-chart. It has retraced to 61.8% Fib, and could be beginning 3th-EW at 1h-chart.

CHF/JPY has finished 5th-Elliott Wave and had a double-top pattern.


E/U's Elliott Wave Analysis at 30m-chart


E/U's 30m-chart has the bullish engulfing candlestick and It could fill the gap.

E/U's daily chart has had the bearish engulfing candlestick.

E/U could be forming a round top before going down.

5-Ew at 1h-chart has finished at 1.45369. Moreover, Double top at 1h-chart. W think that we could wait a little bit. If E/U is going down below 1.44427, then we could have a correction ABC. If not It's could start a new EW at 1.44427 in larger time.

Retracing Fibonacci of E/U at 4h-chart.


H&S Pattern of E/U at 4h-chart.

E/U have broken down at 5m-chart

It could be forming a H&S at 8h-chart

Fib. Analysis of EUR/USD: Price could go to range: 50% (1.4347) - 61.8% (1.4268)

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[03/12/11, 12:00 (EST or NYT)]
E/U have finished a correction- ABC waves at 1h-chart (1.37535). Now, It coud be going up to complete 5- EW at daily-chart (its target is around 1.44). But be careful at 1.42 ( some trader could exit at this position because they think E/U form a double top. Then, E/U could retrace a little bit. then keep going on to complete 5-EW at daily chart. Moreover, the target of 3-EW at weekly chart is 1.5 [03/10/11, 12:00 (EST or NYT)]
E/U could retrace to 1.37260 (R3 or 200 MVA) at 4h chart.

[03/05/11, 14:45 (EST or NYT)]
E/U has finished 5-EW at 4h-chart. It could have a retracement by ABC waves or It could retrace only to 1.38339 (Pivote point), then go up to finish 5-EW at daily chart - its target is at 1.5.

[11/29/10, 13:45 (EST or NYT)]
Elliott Wave of weekly-chart of EUR/USD

[11/04/10, 14:45 (EST or NYT)]
AUD/USD at 4-h chart
SSD, RSI, MACD are overbought. It could go to R: 1.01757. then, It's could have a retracement.

AUD/USD at 4-h chart
A general picture at daily chart, or weekly chart of A/U is not clear for analysis. Then, We have used Monthly-chart

[10/21/10, 11:30 (EST or NYT)]
GBP/USD could be going down to 1.56766 - 1.55622 because previous closed price (10/19/10) under 200-MVA on 4h-chart. Now, It's on the way to come back this value. This also is a bottom (if there is no bad news at this time). then, It's going up in the comming days.

[10/13/10, 13:5 (EST or NYT)]
EUR/AUD is going up to 1.41134
[10/12/10, 17:30 (EST or NYT)]
Technical Analysis of stocks and ETFs: EQIX, MCD, ... More
[10/11/10, 12:15 (EST or NYT)]
EUR/USD had double-top on 1h-chart. its minimum target is 1.36764.
GBP/USD, is forming H&S on 1h-chart. its minimum target is 1.57169.
EUR/JPY is forming H&S on 1h-chart. its minimum target is 112.174.
AUD/USD had double-top on 1h-chart. its minimum target is 0.96498.
[09/04/10, 14:15 (EST or NYT)]
EUR/CHF is going up to 1.34235. then, It's going down to 1.30700
EUR/USD is going up to 1.37451. Then, going down.
Note: E/U has finished 5-EW on 8h-chart. Now, It's in extension. waiting to confirm it's down by A-Elliott Wave.
[09/04/10, 11:00 am (EST or NYT)]
EUR/JPY is going up to 114.544. Then, It's going down to 111.086
[09/30/10, 15:00 (EST or NYT)]
Please, visit and participate website's Forum. This is forum of free thinking,...
[09/29/10, 19:15 (EST or NYT)]
A Header& Shoulder formation of E/U is formed. E/U is going up to range [1.35628-1.36756]. It could have a retracement...more...
[09/24/10, 12:15 pm (EST or NYT)]
E/U isn't going down to 1.32113 yet. Maybe by Unconfirmed Japanese Intervention. It is up to range 1.35628-1.36756
[09/23/10, 18:15 pm (EST or NYT)]
E/U is going down to 1.32113
E/CAD is going down to 1.37002
G/U is going down to 1.55874
[09/29/10, 19:15 (EST or NYT)]
A Header& Shoulder formation of E/U is formed. E/U is going up to range [1.35628-1.36756]. It could have a retracement because MACD, RSI, SSD on hourly Time Frames are overbought and Divergence. Moreover, S&P 500's daily chart has broke neckline of Header & Shouder formation, 200-EMA, and SSD is greater than 85.x (overbought). It's bounding back to 1,069.46-1,043.35 (EUR/USD is a positive correlation with S&P 500. Then, E/U is also bounding back to 1.31507)
After S&P is bounding back to these values. It's continuing going up to perform H&S formation. Its target is at 1,219.x
[09/24/10, 12:15 pm (EST or NYT)]
E/U, E/CAD, G/U aren't going down to predicted value yet. Maybe by Unconfirmed Japanese Intervention.
E/U is up to range 1.35628-1.36756
[09/23/10, 18:15 pm (EST or NYT)]
E/U is going down to 1.32113
E/CAD is going down to 1.37002
G/U is going down to 1.55874

[08/23/10, 17:15 pm (EST or NYT)]
Daily / 8h-chart show E/J has a triple-bottom.
Weekly chart show E/J has a round bottom. It's going up to around 125.x
E/U is going down to around 1.25635. It'll hit the value at 200-MVA on 8h-chart.
Then It'll bound back.
AUD/USD is going up to 0.90662 ( TA is at 8h-chart)
3-EW of AUD/USD is in range 0.90565-0.93847. I think that it doesn't finish 3-EW yet. AUD/USD shows a cup-pattern at Monthly chart.

[08/06/10, 11:20 pm (EST or NYT)]
S&P 500 have just hit 1,114.x (the previous predicted value - 08/02/10)
Now, It's ready going up 1,120.10. ( its current value is 1,110.47)
[08/04/10, 14:20 pm (EST or NYT)]
Update: 6-H Future price chart of EUR/USD
[08/02/10, 1:50 pm (EST or NYT)]
S&P 500 is going down to 1,114.x in short-time TF.
[08/02/10, 12:00 pm (EST or NYT)]
6-H Future price chart of EUR/USD
[07/20/10, 14:10 pm (EST or NYT)]
Outlook the financial markets from Tech Angle.
8-H chart: It's crossing up 200-MVA. So, It's continuing increasing.
But, Now, It's bound back at least when It hit 200-MVA again ( at 1.25)
Bounding back can see from weekly-chart by it hit 20-MVA
Daily chart: SSD(14,3,3)or SSD(15,5,5) is crossing down. MACD is bending down.
If EW count: It could finish 1-W.
Now, E/U could be in 2-EW that its target is at 1.23231 ( close value 1.22344 predicted on 07/01/10)
3-EW's target is in range 1.32968 - 1.37322
5-EW's target is 1.4334.
S&P 500 is going down to 1040.x. 4th-quarter is usually good for the U.S stocks. This push E/U is going up
dxy (Dollar index) is going down to 78.x. This push E/U is going up.
Summary: After E/U has a retracement. It's continuing up.
By Analysis on Monthly-chart: E/U is going up to range 1.47032-1.50218.
[07/14/10, 13:30 pm (EST or NYT)]
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[07/14/10, 12:15 pm (EST or NYT)]
Outlook the financial markets from Tech Angle.
its current price is 1.27611. It is over price predicted on 06/28/10 (1.25376-1.26581).
E/U predicted on 07/01/10 down to 1.22344. It isn't performing yet.
If there is no bad news from Euro zone, 1.1876 is its bottom value. So, E/U is in the up trend right now.
It's going up 1.5 for a next few month. (analysis at monthly chart )
About DJI, SP 500
DJI dropped to 9600.x on 06/28/10.
By Technical Analysis - look at 3-month chart
Its price hit Bolliger Band's down-line.
RSI ~ 30.
Slow Stochastic < 20.
Then, It have to have a retracement. Then, yesterday, good news of earnings of Alcoa, Intel.
Then, Investors, Traders will buy stocks. Hence, Its price is going up more.
DJI's going up to range: 10.395.55-10,594.16 and 1,108.24-1,131.23 for S&P 500.
Then, DJI going down to 9854.95. SP 500 is going down to 1,040.43 If there is no good news at that time. otherwise, It's going down latter on.
This time the market is sideways until 4th-quaters. 4th-quaters is good for stocks by firms earnings.
Then, They're going up. But, Later They continuing going down (maybe next year)
About Individual stocks: We will publish later.
About simulation of the financial markets We will publish later.

[07/01/10, 12:00 pm (EST or NYT)]
EUR/USD is going down to 1.22344
[06/29/10, 5:15 pm (EST or NYT)]
The economics of Japan and China are the slowdown.
The consumer confidence fell sharply this month
Falling yields are a sign that investors are willing to give up potential gains in stocks.
Dow dropped 268.22 points to 9,870.30
S&P 500 dropped 33.33 points to 1,041.24
They dropped under the values predicted on 06/14/10.
EUR/USD dropped to 1.2152 (its predicted value is in 1.21443-1.21178)
[06/28/10, 7:00 pm (EST or NYT)]
E/U is still in the retracing chanel. Its target is in range 1.25376-1.26581 (A retracement at around 1.382% (Fib.))
I think that E/U's 1.1876 is its bottom. Now, It's moving in a narrow range for a few of months before It takes off.
[06/21/10, 1:15 pm (EST or NYT)]
A Header-Shouder Pattern at 15-minute chart of EUR/USD. its target price is in range 1.22812 - 1.22437
[06/14/10, 3:00pm (EST or NYT)]
Outlook the financial markets from Tech Angle. a/ E/U
I had a warnning about a retracement of E/U on 06/03/10 to 1.24752. This is has been happending.
Now, E/U return the down trend to range 1.21443-1.21178, then going up to 1.24752 to finish a retracement.
b/ Dollar Index (DXY) broke 200-EMA on 06/08/10. It's going down to 86.x, then 78.x.
c/ S&P 500 broke 200-EMA (daily chart). It's going down. Now, It's at a retracement (b-EW). Then continuing c-EW to range 873.x - 937.x.
In short-term (a next few days) It's going down to 1084.47, then 1055.x. Specially, watching today or tomorrow - (20-EMA have been down crossing through 50-EMA) - The sell-off on the stock markets conducts E/U finishing the retracing chanel.
[06/02/10, 1:45pm (EST or NYT)]
In the near future ( today or a next few of days)
DJI'll drop to 10,079.x (its current is 10,147.x)
S&P 'll drop to 1,077.x (its current is 1,086.x)
PS: Short E/U while these events is happending.

Update from yesterday news
Yesterday 06/01/10
DJI dropped to 10,024.x (under value that I gave 10,064.x). S&P dropped more to 1,070.x (as prediction on 05/31/10 - "S&P'll drop more when DJI is to 10,064.x")
[06/01/10, 12:45 (EST or NYT)]
I predicted on 05/27/10
"In short-term (in a day of a few of days)
DJI will drop to 10064.x
S&P 500 will drop to 1084.x "
I saw on last Friday (05/28/10)
S&P 500 fell to 1084.86 (exeactly!). But,
DJIA fell to 10,098.09. It is not going to 10,064 yet. DJI'll fall to this target in the near future. This means S&P will drop more. Hence, E/U is going down more.

{We predicted on 05/12/10

Short-term predicts - in a next of few days.
DJIA is going down to range 10,330.x - 10,407.x
S&P 500 is going down to range 1,105.x - 1114.x
On 05/19/10, DJIA and S&P 500 felt down to range we predicted on 05/12/10 exactly!
We also have predicted them for long-term (see at item: "The market timing")
we had the values at a sometime in the future. i.e. sooner or later, they could gain the value. But, in the between (from now to near future, depend on news DJI could be going up to 13,000.x then after that, It's going down. But we think that Euro Zone takes a long time to fix because EU contains many countries. Now, Greece has the problem, then later another country of EU,..Moreover, many people play E/U pair then their emotions could drive E/U pair more down than normal. Hence, we think that indexes could gain the values sooner...).
You could see these by an example
If you look at 5 years chart of DJI. It's colud be 1 top/ header & shouder later. If it's going through neckline, It could go to R/S (~ 8,xxx.xx)
Today 05/25/10
DJI is going down to 9774.48
S&P 500 is going down to 1040.78
At the present, the stocks markets look like Casinoes. They are selling when they gain a little bit. Because of EU's bad news and fear about a gobal economic. Moreover, many people has no job right now. then, they think the stock market is place to make money. Some of them know nothing about market. I read some articles at some magazines last two week. They said some of the trading companies hiring a professional casino people to play "casino" on the stock market. these teams could drive the markets down/up fast. then, down/up again,... If you are a investor. You could take advange to buy stocks that you like with a cheap price. But, the morden stock market. Bull/Bear doesn't last long like before.