November - January has historically been the strongest 3-month period for the S&P
Since 1945, the S&P is positive over those 3-month 72% of the time, up an average of 4.1%
AVG. ROLLING 3-MON. PRICE CHANGES SINCE 1945
|Period||Price Change||Freq. of Gain|
Because S&P 500 has a positive with EUR/USD, then, We expect EUR/USD is going up in the period.
The "January Effect"
The phenomenon that suggests prices should rise during the month of January as tax loss selling abates and those funds are reinvested.
The impact is said to be greater on small and mid-cap companies than it is on large caps.
For example, for the "January Effect" of 1951 you would have entered at the close of business on December 29, 1950 at $20.43 and exited on January 31, 1951 at $21.66, booking a 6% gain.
The average return for the S&P 500 in the month of January over the last 60 years is around 1%.